Transport communication, level of its quality and diversification are one of the key indicators of the development of economy of the country, its involvement into regional and global economical relations. Wide range of auto- and railways, pipelines and electricity lines allows binding economically different regions of country forming the basis of balanced functioning. It also provides opportunities for the country to rise own integration potential in the frames of interstate cooperation and international economic organizations.
Therefore from this point of view, issues of modernization and development of transportation communications are very actual for the countries of Central Asia. Their future economic and geopolitical importance and the importance of the region in the whole will depend on the resolution of the abovementioned issues.
International community of transport workers is highly interested but discusses differently issues of effectiveness functioning of transport systems on corresponding types (railway, air, auto and pipeline) and also on internal and interstate strategies of development of transport systems. These issues are of a special acuteness when it comes to transcontinental transport corridors and trunk lines. In this case everybody start talking tensively and with political implication about own national-state interests, considering rational to build new transport-economic systems based on diversification version.
Paradigm of diversification makes sound if perspective of international and interstate cooperation is planned on the basis of mutually exclusive interests and therefore conflicts in the future.
This paradigm can be transformed into more acceptable if to follow the way of interstate, interregional and transcontinental integration in the transport sphere of international economy, choosing more cost-effective variants in joint investments and regimes of minimal expenses.
Paradigm of integration seems to us more preferable for international community of transport workers.
Leaving discrepancies to politics, professionals of transport communications and system of transport infrastructure now have all the possibilities to discuss and then to propose strategy of creation of new system of cooperation of states in the frames of this economic sector.
However, there is no solidarity in community of transport workers on the main issue concerning the model of cooperation. Some specialists consider that the activities should be based only on transportation abilities of “locomotive” states, others consider that the activities should be aimed at finding cost-effective niche for every state – subject of the transportation-economic process.
Arguments of the supporters of relying on “locomotives” are of course quite persuasive, because they are based on technical abilities up to such conditions when this branch would have new types of transportation.
Second model of development of transportation web is based on building of system in the type of transcontinental transport corridors and trunk lines on Eurasian continent. It is supposed that there can be 3 such corridors: East-West; North-South and newly reestablished “The Great Silk Road”.
In the context of realization of transport potential of Central Asia 2 interrelated directions can be outlined. First is finding opportunities for speeding of transport integration of Central Asian countries and bringing to a new quality level. Second is development and realization of measures on establishment of transportation partnership with leading economic centers of Eurasian continent, that also play role of the main consigners and consignees.
In the frames of the first of indicated directions i.e. enhancement of intraregional transport integration, it is worth to note necessity of realization of wide range of measures of economic and political nature. We consider controlled enforcement of activities aimed at economic and industrial integration of Central Asian countries, overcoming of internal disproportions, and further development of trade relations and creation of conditions for mutual investments, to be priority condition of fundamental nature. It is impossible to ensure valuable development of intraregional transport communications without this basis. It is wide range of economic relations that might push to real and not declarative cooperation in the sphere of communications.
At this time such efforts are taken in the frames of such regional integration entities such as EurAsEC, SOC, however these efforts are not that effective as it is desired. Of course, a lot of decisions are made, including those on bilateral level, but practical realization is not satisfactory. A weak side is first of all, creation and ensuring functioning of mechanisms of realization of decisions made. In addition there is a hidden distrust of parties, that creates certain risks for investors.
Together with that, potential for intensification of cooperation in economic sphere is very important. So, in accordance with last prognosis of ADB, economy of Central Asian countries in 2007-2008 will confidently increase. In 2007 increase of GDPs of the countries of region will be in the range of 7.4-8.6%.
Second condition, which is consequence of the first is realization of measures on increase of quality of the transportation communications and services in use, harmonization of legislative background. It should be mentioned that creation of good conditions for national and international shippers is a key point in transportation strategies of all the countries of Central Asia. Importance of this condition is acknowledged by all that creates favorable prerequisites for activation of dialogue on official level on the issues of harmonization of legislative basis in the sphere of tariffs and taxation in particular.
Third condition of improvement of integration processes in the sphere of transport communications is diversification of access to international markets through development of new routes and corridors.
Development of new routes of transportation of cargoes and creation of favorable conditions for transit of goods and passengers widen, first of all, possibilities of choices of regional and international consignors and consignees assisting ipso facto real integration of Central Asian transport nets. Consignor can vary with more confidence routes of delivery when there are equally favorable conditions.
I.e. a supplier from Uzbekistan can ideally use 5 shipment routes for product exporting to Europe. First two are ports on Caspian: Turkmen – Turkmenbashi and Kazakh – Aktau and further either through Astrakhan or countries of South Caucasus. Third is railroad and motor transport routes through Kazakhstan and Russia. Fourth is through Turkmenistan and Northern Iran. And fifth is air shipment.
Immediate consequence of diversification would be also increase of trust of international partners and increase of public image of Central Asian communication system.
Emergence of diversified by at the same time closely integrated communication infrastructure increases strongly resistance of the region to foreign policy and economic risks. Thus, blockage of one of the routes by any reason would not be fatal in case of presence of alternative route, having enough potential for cope with additional supply streams.
In examining this question it is important to avoid its excessive politicization. Diversification should contain pure competitiveness core but not confrontation. And one should not be scared of market competitiveness because it is integral element of progress and on some defined stage of development trajectory it might lead to tendencies of settlement of coordination relations as it often happens in business. I would not that cooperation in the sphere of transportation is inevitable, taking into consideration that none of the Central Asian countries is completely self-sufficient in communication.
Second key direction on maximal realization of transportation and transit capital of Central Asia is necessity to establish partnership with leading economic centers of Eurasian continent, that act at the same time as the biggest consignor and consignees. These are first of all European Union and countries of South and South-Eastern Asia, Far and Middle East, CIS. At present commodity turnover between leading continental markets is estimated at more than 600 billion USD annually.
In the view of quite weak development of intracontinental communications, existence of high risks and higher prices on transportation, lion`s share of shipments is done through sea, in particular using communications of Indian Ocean. Nowadays these communications are third by value in the world, conceding to Atlantic and Pacific oceans. 30% of the world`s goods turnover falls on Indian Ocean.
Together with that, taking into consideration prognosis on the fact that goods turnover between Asia and Europe is going to demonstrate high rates of growth; we can assume that communications of Indian Ocean would encounter increasing difficulties with goods shipment. As it has been noted in introduction, weak points of that are limited traffic capacity of such transportation arteries as Mallak Strait and Suez Canal.
The fact that it might become a problem, shows example of Turkish straits Bosporus and Dardanelles, that are facing serious difficulties with ensuring transit of increasing volume of tanker shipments of Russian and Kazakh oil.
Thus there are 2 perspectives for Central Asian countries: a) perspective of pulling over of part of goods turnover of south ocean route and b) perspective of taking part of shipments in the future additional volume of goods that would stream from West to East and from North to South. Geographically median situation between West Europe and China, as well as between North Europe and Middle East, and South Asia is natural advantage of Central Asia. It significantly reduces time of shipment in comparison with oceanic routes that have to double Eurasia from south.
For example, if traditional shipment from Asia to Europe by sea takes on the average 30-35 days, transportation through such route as “North-South” that includes sea and railway communications of Central Asia is faster for 10-12 days.
Because of this, combination on temporal and geographical factors with the prices satisfying interests of both consignors and transitors becomes actual for Central Asia.
However, communications of Central Asia cannot ensure absolute accuracy of works without failures and on adequate prices in cargo shipment, especially on connecting hubs. If it was possible to reach a high-efficiency interaction on this point, then it could lead to saving of about $2000 from each container for consignor on North-South route that could become a serious argument in support of regional and intracontinental communications.
State-transitors could also get significant financial benefits. As it was noted by the Secretary General of EurAsEC - G.Rapota, only 1% of all shipments from East Asia to Western Europe pass through the states of Organization. If the states-members of EurAsEC would head for development of own transport potential, the cargo traffic could rise up to 10% that in terms of money would make billions of US dollars.
Considering transit potential of Central Asia it is necessary to touch upon energy sphere with its pipelines and power industry. At present several powerful gas and oil pipelines are passing through the territory of Central Asia. Gas pipelines “Central-Asia – Centre”, and “Bukhara - Ural” and oil pipelines “Atyrau – Samara”, “Caspian Pipeline Consortium” and “Atasu – Alashankou” are among them.
At the same time in the nearest future additional transportation power got both at the cost of widening traffic capacity of existing power systems and building the new ones could be needed. It is caused by two aspects:
Significance of these aspects is approved by official data given by the government of the USA – oil consumption of China in 2006 was equal to about 7.4 million barrels per day what is higher of the data of 2005 on 500 000 barrels. Last year Chinese market provided 38% of global rise of oil consumption. It is expected further growth of oil production in Kazakhstan, natural gas – in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, realization of the projects on building the new electric stations in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan.
In this case increase in traffic capacity and developing new transportation powers becomes as actual as ever more. But the problem of energy transportation and transition leads the necessity of cooperation in capital formation in modernization functioning powers and diversification of delivery routes. It is too hard to do without multilateral cooperation. Particularly, development of gas corridor from Turkmenistan to China without participation of Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan is absolutely impossible because of geographic aspect taking into consideration that the source of raw materials for the project is assigned to Turkmen right-bank of Amudarya.
At the same time the problem of diversification of transport and transit routes has high geopolitical risks because it is politically loaded. That is why it needs detailed elaboration of the projects of development of new transport directions considering multilateral format wit participation of reliable traditional partners of Central Asian states. It is necessary to develop such model of cooperation were interests of all parts would be taken into consideration and negative political risks that could be the result of rivalry of regional and external powers are minimised.
Coming back to two abovementioned variants of interaction in the framework of transport communication and considered model of functioning transit traffic through Central Asia we need to notice tat today there is a base fro third variant of development of transport systems founded on transcontinental interrelation of transport schemes, networks and corridors.
But for that it is needed, first of all, joint efforts of international core community on adaptation of the legal framework of international transportation to modern geopolitical and geo-economic situation.
Legal framework of international transportation is defined by international conventions, interstate agreements, and national legislative systems of the states participating in foreign economic relations.
International activity of transporters is regulated by:
Russia, the CIS countries, the states of Baltic, Poland, Mongolia, China, North Korea, Turkey and Iran carry out their railway transportation according to the Convention on international cargo agreement existing since Soviet period.
Many transnational corporations and holding companies created for theirselves the special regime. Special departments under these corporations provide functioning of “their own” logistics delivery systems “just-in-time” being system integrators that supply with competitive technical solutions on optimization of the process. Such departments create the strategy of uniting transport logistics with productive, distributive and informative ones. Experience of such logistics structures could be adapted to the needs of such structures as “transport corridor” functioning on complicated infrastructural scheme.
For instance let`s an example of well-known Japanese transport-shipping company NEC Logistics Ltd which offers its services to Japanese transnational corporation NEC Corporation around the world. Conception of development of the NEC Corporation – “Empowered by Innovation” – became another level in evolution of creation logistic systems. The strategy of development of the NEC is “Logistics, Solution, Provider” that is aspiration for logistics services of world level, providing optimal logistics solutions, following to the delivery system “just-in-time”.
But despite large experience of such structures under transnational corporations they are still “affiliated” and their activity is concentrated not on uniting aims and objectives of the whole transport corridor but on directives of its client, i.e. corporation.
Scientists and practitioners involved in transport-communication branch need to think also about synchronisation of development strategies in neighbour countries and states – economic partners.
At present time none of them could step over national needs except demonstration of the desire to participate in elaboration of the complex of interstate logistics schemes.
The President of “Russian Railways” Company V.Yakunin made frank confession during his interview to Russian newspaper “Kommersant” in November, 2007. He was asked if there were consultations with companies or governmental structures during the preparation of the Program. V.Yakunin answered: “The Program (“The Strategy of Development of Railway Transport in Russia till 2030”) was not endorsed by any foreign partners, all the more representatives of foreign states. But the Strategy in some cases implies such cooperation, for example development of transit potential of the state. It is impossible without development of cooperation with Central Asian states where a big number of cargo traffic is situated”.
Thereby, taking into account emphasized directions of the most part of cargo traffic and thereafter requirements of many interested in states with the potential of economic growth it is actual to consider the prospects of really functioning intracontinental alternative to the South sea route through Central Asian region and also more active loading of transport communications with cargo traffics, forming in the territory of Central Asia.
In this context it could be observed the prospects of creation of logistics junction for Central Asia on the territory of Uzbekistan which could operate with transportation in North-South direction, become an interchange for many transport junctions and be the stage for international companies in the sphere of re-exports operations.
Such logistics junction could develop according existing models where naturally combined geographic benefits and economic, transport and transit factors. Successful example of such combination is Dubai that due to beneficial geographic location and flexible policy in the sphere of transportation became the leader in the sector of transit cargo operations. Thus, today companies of Dubai own more than 50% of sea shipment in the zone of Persian Gulf.
Another example - Latvian port Wentspils - is one of the leading logistics junctions in the system of cargo traffic between the states of West Europe and the CIS. It attracts growing volumes of transit and re-export cargos in Central Asia-Europe direction, offering some beneficial conditions in the sphere of logistics.
Potential and prospects of development of central asian transport corridor
